Chiefs vs Saints – Week 15 2020
KC
NO
KC
AWAY
32@29
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 32, New Orleans Saints 29.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chiefs, 3 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 50%Our line: NO -0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
NO +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.177
+0.184 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.093 (9)
+0.045 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.084 (4)
50.1% (3)Offense success %47.6% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick misses. KC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but KC won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 3.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NO by 0.0. The market has NO at +2.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 32, NO 29. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at +2.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 15, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 6.0 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, NO 13, KC 26 in Week 5 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: KC +0.138 against NO +0.177.
