2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ LV – Week 15 2020
LAC
LV
LAC
AWAY
30@27
LAC +3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 57%Projected margin: 2.6
LV
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
2.6
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but LAC won. Projected margin was 2.6 -- the model overestimated by 5.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -174 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
332.8SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
245.1SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
165.3SEASON PPR
LV
Darren Waller
TE
278.6SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
272.1SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
| LAC@LVW15 2023 | LAC 21, LV 63 | LV | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES