Texans vs Colts – Week 15 2020
HOU
IND
HOU
AWAY
20@27
IND BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 20, Indianapolis Colts 27.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: IND 65%Our line: IND -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -5.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.071Net EPA / play+0.109
+0.099 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (12)
+0.170 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.030 (9)
47.6% (7)Offense success %46.6% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 5.3. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0 SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9 SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Deshaun Watson4823 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
David Johnson691 yd · 6 TD
Deshaun Watson444 yd · 3 TD
Duke Johnson235 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks81 rec · 1150 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@INDW3 2026 | HOU 17, IND 19 | HOU | L |
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs IND
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 65% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project IND by 5.3. The market has IND at -7.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, HOU 20, IND 27. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -7.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 7.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 6.4 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, HOU 17, IND 19 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: HOU -0.071 against IND +0.109.
