2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ IND – Week 15 2020
HOU
IND
HOU
AWAY
20@27
IND +7
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER A
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 65%Projected margin: 6.0
IND
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
6.0
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 6.0. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.0 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -370 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
188.9SEASON PPR
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
252.8SEASON PPR
Philip Rivers
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Nyheim Hines
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES