DET @ TEN – Week 15 2020
DET
TEN
DET
AWAY
25@46
TEN BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: TEN 71%Our line: TEN -7.4
TEN
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.4
OUR LINE
-244
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.208Net EPA / play+0.053
-0.005Offense EPA / play+0.171
+0.203Defense EPA / play+0.117
44.3%Offense success %50.1%
51.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 7.4. Actual: 21. Off by 13.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +325 | -389 |
| Our fair price | +244 | -244 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TEN -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
71%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for TEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DET
Matthew Stafford
QB
260.6 SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
227.8 SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
189.8 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Matthew Stafford4084 yd · 26 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Adrian Peterson604 yd · 7 TD
D'Andre Swift521 yd · 8 TD
Kerryon Johnson181 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Marvin Jones76 rec · 978 yd · 9 TD
T.J. Hockenson67 rec · 723 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@DETW8 2024 | TEN 14, DET 52 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 71% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TEN by 7.4. The market has TEN at -9.5.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 54.5.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, TEN 14, DET 52 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tennessee Titans: DET -0.208 against TEN +0.053.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
