Lions vs Titans – Week 15 2020
DET
TEN
DET
AWAY
25@46
TEN BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 25, Tennessee Titans 46.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Lions.
Model confidence: TEN 71%Our line: TEN -7.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -7.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.208Net EPA / play+0.053
-0.005 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.171 (3)
+0.203 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.117 (28)
44.3% (21)Offense success %50.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 7.4. Actual: 21. Off by 13.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
TEN
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@DETW8 2024 | TEN 14, DET 52 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 71% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TEN by 7.4. The market has TEN at -9.5.
Tennessee Titans won, DET 25, TEN 46. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -9.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 15, the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 8.3 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, TEN 14, DET 52 in Week 8 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tennessee Titans: DET -0.208 against TEN +0.053.
