Steelers vs Bengals – Week 15 2020
PIT
CIN
PIT
AWAY
17@27
CIN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Cincinnati Bengals 27.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers, 2 Bengals.
Model confidence: PIT 72%Our line: PIT -7.9
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -14.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -7.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.128Net EPA / play-0.141
+0.010 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (26)
-0.118 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.092 (26)
43.2% (25)Offense success %43.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT S-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but CIN won. Projected margin was 7.9, the model overestimated by 17.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 24.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
267.2 SEASON PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
234.1 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3803 yd · 33 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner721 yd · 6 TD
Benny Snell368 yd · 4 TD
Anthony McFarland113 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson88 rec · 923 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@PITW3 2026 | CIN 27, PIT 30 | PIT | W |
| CIN@PITW11 2025 | CIN 12, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CINW7 2025 | PIT 31, CIN 33 | PIT | L |
| CIN@PITW18 2024 | CIN 19, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CINW13 2024 | PIT 44, CIN 38 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs CIN
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project PIT by 7.9. The market has PIT at -14.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, PIT 17, CIN 27. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -14.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 14.5 points.
In Week 15, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 6.5 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, CIN 27, PIT 30 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.128 against CIN -0.141.
