Panthers vs Packers – Week 15 2020
CAR
GB
CAR
AWAY
16@24
GB BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 16, Green Bay Packers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Panthers, 2 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 73%Our line: GB -8.2
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -8.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.073Net EPA / play+0.196
+0.004 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.219 (1)
+0.077 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.022 (14)
45.0% (19)Offense success %50.7% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 8.2. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
5 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@GBW9 2025 | CAR 16, GB 13 | GB | L |
| GB@CARW16 2023 | GB 33, CAR 30 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 8.2. The market has GB at -9.5.
Green Bay Packers won, CAR 16, GB 24. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -9.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 15, the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 6.9 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SAT 8:15 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 16, GB 13 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Green Bay Packers: CAR -0.073 against GB +0.196.
