CAR @ GB – Week 15 2020
CAR
GB
CAR
AWAY
16@24
GB BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 73%Our line: GB -8.2
GB
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-8.2
OUR LINE
-268
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.073Net EPA / play+0.196
+0.004Offense EPA / play+0.219
+0.077Defense EPA / play+0.022
45.0%Offense success %50.7%
47.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 8.2. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +346 | -419 |
| Our fair price | +268 | -268 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
73%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
5 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Mike Davis642 yd · 6 TD
Teddy Bridgewater279 yd · 5 TD
Christian McCaffrey225 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore66 rec · 1193 yd · 4 TD
Robbie Chosen95 rec · 1096 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@GBW9 2025 | CAR 16, GB 13 | GB | L |
| GB@CARW16 2023 | GB 33, CAR 30 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 8.2. The market has GB at -9.5.
The model projects 46.1 combined points. The market total is 53.0.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SAT 8:15 PM.
Carolina Panthers, CAR 16, GB 13 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Green Bay Packers: CAR -0.073 against GB +0.196.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
