2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ ATL – Week 15 2020
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
31@27
TB +4
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 57%Projected margin: -3.7
TB
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-3.7
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 3.7. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -258 | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
No noteworthy trends
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
191.0SEASON PPR
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES