Buccaneers vs Falcons – Week 15 2020
TB
ATL
TB
AWAY
31@27
TB BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Atlanta Falcons 27.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Falcons.
Model confidence: TB 57%Our line: TB -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -2.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.170Net EPA / play-0.042
+0.119 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (16)
-0.051 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (21)
45.9% (15)Offense success %43.2% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected TB by 2.6. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6 SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
191.0 SEASON PPR
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4633 yd · 40 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Ronald Jones978 yd · 7 TD
Leonard Fournette367 yd · 6 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn109 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans70 rec · 1006 yd · 13 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@TBW15 2025 | ATL 29, TB 28 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW1 2025 | TB 23, ATL 20 | TB | W |
| ATL@TBW8 2024 | ATL 31, TB 26 | TB | L |
| TB@ATLW5 2024 | TB 30, ATL 36 | ATL | W |
| TB@ATLW14 2023 | TB 29, ATL 25 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs ATL
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 2.6. The market has TB at -6.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, TB 31, ATL 27. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -6.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 15, the Atlanta Falcons were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.1, 0.4 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 29, TB 28 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.170 against ATL -0.042.
