NYJ @ LA – Week 15 2020
NYJ
LA
NYJ
AWAY
23@20
NYJ BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
Model confidence: LA 77%Our line: LA -9.9
LA
PICK SIDE
-17.5
MARKET SPREAD
-9.9
OUR LINE
-333
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.227Net EPA / play+0.162
-0.143Offense EPA / play-0.015
+0.084Defense EPA / play-0.177
40.2%Offense success %44.5%
46.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA S-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but NYJ won. Projected margin was 9.9, the model overestimated by 12.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +957 | -1601 |
| Our fair price | +333 | -333 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -17.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
77%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
91%
DIFFERENCE
-14%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NYJ
Jamison Crowder
WR
172.0 SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
134.0 SEASON PPR
Frank Gore
RB
100.2 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Sam Darnold2208 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Frank Gore653 yd · 2 TD
Ty Johnson254 yd · 1 TD
La'Mical Perine232 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Jamison Crowder59 rec · 699 yd · 6 TD
Breshad Perriman30 rec · 505 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs LA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 77% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project LA by 9.9. The market has LA at -17.5.
The model projects 47.3 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 19, NYJ 9 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Rams: NYJ -0.227 against LA +0.162.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
