Jets vs Rams – Week 15 2020
NYJ
LA
NYJ
AWAY
23@20
NYJ BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 23, Los Angeles Rams 20.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 77% win probability, and the pick lost.
Model confidence: LA 77%Our line: LA -9.9
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -17.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -9.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.227Net EPA / play+0.162
-0.143 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.015 (23)
+0.084 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.177 (1)
40.2% (31)Offense success %44.5% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA S-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but NYJ won. Projected margin was 9.9, the model overestimated by 12.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Sam Darnold2208 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Frank Gore653 yd · 2 TD
Ty Johnson254 yd · 1 TD
La'Mical Perine232 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Jamison Crowder59 rec · 699 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 77% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project LA by 9.9. The market has LA at -17.5.
New York Jets won, NYJ 23, LA 20. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 77% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -17.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 17.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 2.8 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 19, NYJ 9 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Rams: NYJ -0.227 against LA +0.162.
