HOU @ IND – Week 3 2026
HOU
IND
HOU
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
IND
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 72%Projected margin: -5.6
HOU
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-5.6
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.118Net EPA / play+0.068
-0.013Offense EPA / play+0.072
-0.131Defense EPA / play+0.004
41.3%Offense success %46.3%
38.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors HOU (A-tier, 72% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
HOU is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
H2H EDGE
HOU has won 5 of the last 5 meetings against IND.
Net-positive signal profile for HOU. Grade: A.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
177.7SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.Stroud3041 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
W.Marks703 yd · 2 TD
N.Chubb506 yd · 3 TD
C.Stroud209 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
N.Collins71 rec · 1117 yd · 6 TD
D.Schultz82 rec · 777 yd · 3 TD
J.Higgins41 rec · 525 yd · 6 TD
X.Hutchinson35 rec · 428 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,041PASSyds3,101
1,418RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW11 2026 | — | HOU | — |
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs IND
Who is favored in Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts?
Our model takes Houston Texans at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project HOU by 5.6. The market has HOU at -1.5.
When do the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts game?
Houston Texans, 30-38 in Week 18 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Houston Texans or the Indianapolis Colts?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.118 against IND +0.068.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
