Texans vs Colts – Week 3 2026
HOU
IND
HOU
AWAY
17@19
IND BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2026 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 17, Indianapolis Colts 19.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Texans, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: HOU 68%Our line: HOU -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.150
+0.005 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.051 (22)
-0.043 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.099 (27)
42.4% (18)Offense success %42.2% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but IND won. Projected margin was 6.4, the model overestimated by 8.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs IND
Our model takes Houston Texans at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 6.4. The market has HOU at -1.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, HOU 17, IND 19. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at -1.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 3, the Houston Texans were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 1.7 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, IND 30, HOU 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.048 against IND -0.150.
