Vikings vs Eagles – Week 2 2023
MIN
PHI
MIN
AWAY
28@34
PHI BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 28, Philadelphia Eagles 34.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 3 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 61%Our line: PHI -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -3.7
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
PHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
68%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
| SOURCE | MIN | PHI | PHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +195 | -238 | 68.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.023Net EPA / play+0.005
-0.041 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.054 (8)
-0.018 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.049 (29)
42.4% (13)Offense success %45.9% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 3.7. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-6.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins2331 yd · 18 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Alexander Mattison700 yd · 0 TD
Ty Chandler461 yd · 3 TD
Joshua Dobbs163 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@MINW7 2025 | PHI 28, MIN 22 | PHI | W |
| MIN@PHIW2 2022 | MIN 7, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PHI by 3.7. The market has PHI at -6.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, MIN 28, PHI 34. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -6.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 2, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 28, MIN 22 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Philadelphia Eagles: MIN -0.023 against PHI +0.005.
