MIN @ PHI – Week 2 2023
MIN
PHI
MIN
AWAY
28@34
PHI BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 61%Our line: PHI -3.7
PHI
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.7
OUR LINE
-154
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.023Net EPA / play+0.005
-0.041Offense EPA / play+0.054
-0.018Defense EPA / play+0.049
42.4%Offense success %45.9%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 3.7. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-6.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +195 | -238 |
| Our fair price | +154 | -154 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
68%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIN
Jordan Addison
WR
221.3 SEASON PPR
T.J. Hockenson
TE
219.0 SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
WR
202.2 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins2331 yd · 18 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Alexander Mattison700 yd · 0 TD
Ty Chandler461 yd · 3 TD
Joshua Dobbs163 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson68 rec · 1074 yd · 5 TD
T.J. Hockenson95 rec · 960 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@MINW7 2025 | PHI 28, MIN 22 | PHI | W |
| MIN@PHIW2 2022 | MIN 7, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 61% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PHI by 3.7. The market has PHI at -6.0.
Week 2 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 28, MIN 22 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Philadelphia Eagles: MIN -0.023 against PHI +0.005.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
