CLE @ PIT – Week 2 2023
CLE
PIT
CLE
AWAY
22@26
PIT BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 64%Our line: PIT -4.8
PIT
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.8
OUR LINE
-176
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.045Net EPA / play-0.013
-0.141Offense EPA / play-0.073
-0.186Defense EPA / play-0.060
38.9%Offense success %42.0%
35.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 4.8. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -148 | +124 |
| Our fair price | +176 | -176 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.43
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
43%
DIFFERENCE
+21%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
No noteworthy trends
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0 SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2 SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
201.2 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
Joe Flacco1616 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Jerome Ford813 yd · 4 TD
Kareem Hunt411 yd · 9 TD
Pierre Strong291 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Amari Cooper72 rec · 1250 yd · 5 TD
David Njoku81 rec · 882 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW11 2023 | PIT 10, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 4.8. The market has PIT at +2.5.
Week 2 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PIT 6, CLE 13 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.045 against PIT -0.013.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
