Browns vs Steelers – Week 2 2023
CLE
PIT
CLE
AWAY
22@26
PIT BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 26.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 64%Our line: PIT -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
PIT · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
42%
DIFFERENCE
+22%
| SOURCE | CLE | PIT | PIT WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -148 | +124 | 42.5% |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.045Net EPA / play-0.013
-0.141 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.073 (23)
-0.186 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
38.9% (29)Offense success %42.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 4.8. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
No noteworthy trends
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
Amari Cooper
WR
227.0 SEASON PPR
Jerome Ford
RB
211.2 SEASON PPR
David Njoku
TE
201.2 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLEW4 2026 | PIT 24, CLE 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@CLEW17 2025 | PIT 6, CLE 13 | PIT | L |
| CLE@PITW6 2025 | CLE 9, PIT 23 | PIT | W |
| CLE@PITW14 2024 | CLE 14, PIT 27 | PIT | W |
| PIT@CLEW12 2024 | PIT 19, CLE 24 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 4.8. The market has PIT at +2.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, CLE 22, PIT 26. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +2.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 2, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Cleveland Browns, PIT 24, CLE 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.045 against PIT -0.013.
