Chargers vs Titans – Week 2 2023
LAC
TEN
LAC
AWAY
24@27
TEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 24, Tennessee Titans 27.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Chargers, 2 Titans.
Model confidence: LAC 71%Our line: LAC -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -7.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
LAC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
57%
DIFFERENCE
+14%
| SOURCE | LAC | TEN | LAC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -142 | +120 | 56.6% |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.088Net EPA / play-0.055
-0.076 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.047 (18)
+0.012 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (23)
41.0% (22)Offense success %39.7% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but TEN won. Projected margin was 7.5, the model overestimated by 10.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@TENW9 2025 | LAC 27, TEN 20 | LAC | W |
| TEN@LACW10 2024 | TEN 17, LAC 27 | LAC | W |
| TEN@LACW15 2022 | TEN 14, LAC 17 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs TEN
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 7.5. The market has LAC at -2.5.
Tennessee Titans won, LAC 24, TEN 27. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 71% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 2, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 27, TEN 20 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Tennessee Titans: LAC -0.088 against TEN -0.055.
