Seahawks vs Lions – Week 2 2023
SEA
DET
SEA
AWAY
37@31
SEA BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Seattle Seahawks 37, Detroit Lions 31.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Seahawks, 4 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 70%Our line: DET -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -7.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
DET · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
66%
DIFFERENCE
+4%
| SOURCE | SEA | DET | DET WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +180 | -218 | 66.4% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.035Net EPA / play+0.093
+0.016 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.064 (7)
+0.051 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.029 (17)
43.9% (11)Offense success %46.1% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but SEA won. Projected margin was 7.1, the model overestimated by 13.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
No noteworthy trends
DET
Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@DETW4 2024 | SEA 29, DET 42 | DET | W |
| SEA@DETW4 2022 | SEA 48, DET 45 | SEA | W |
| DET@SEAW17 2021 | DET 29, SEA 51 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 7.1. The market has DET at -4.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, SEA 37, DET 31. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at -4.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 2, the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, SEA 29, DET 42 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Detroit Lions: SEA -0.035 against DET +0.093.
