2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ JAX – Week 2 2023
KC
JAX
KC
AWAY
17@9
KC +8
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 64%Projected margin: -1.9
KC
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-1.9
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 1.9. Actual: 8. Off by 6.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -170 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
280.2SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
219.4SEASON PPR
Isiah Pacheco
RB
213.9SEASON PPR
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@JAXW5 2025 | KC 28, JAX 31 | JAX | W |
| JAX@KCW10 2022 | JAX 17, KC 27 | KC | W |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES