Chiefs vs Jaguars – Week 2 2023
KC
JAX
KC
AWAY
17@9
KC BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 17, Jacksonville Jaguars 9.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: KC 64%Our line: KC -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -4.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
KC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
61%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
| SOURCE | KC | JAX | KC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -170 | +142 | 60.8% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.107Net EPA / play-0.034
+0.021 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.070 (21)
-0.086 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.036 (16)
43.7% (12)Offense success %42.1% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 8. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@JAXW5 2025 | KC 28, JAX 31 | JAX | W |
| JAX@KCW10 2022 | JAX 17, KC 27 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs JAX
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 4.7. The market has KC at -3.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 17, JAX 9. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 2, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, KC 28, JAX 31 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.107 against JAX -0.034.
