2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ BUF – Week 2 2023
LV
BUF
LV
AWAY
10@38
BUF +28
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 69%Projected margin: 5.8
BUF
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
5.8
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 5.8. Actual: 28. Off by 22.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -355 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
265.4SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
218.6SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
181.1SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
392.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
273.8SEASON PPR
James Cook
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LVW4 2020 | BUF 30, LV 23 | BUF | W |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES