Raiders vs Bills – Week 2 2023
LV
BUF
LV
AWAY
10@38
BUF BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 10, Buffalo Bills 38.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: BUF 69%Our line: BUF -6.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -6.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
BUF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
76%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
| SOURCE | LV | BUF | BUF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +280 | -355 | 75.9% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.037Net EPA / play+0.182
-0.097 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.108 (2)
-0.060 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.074 (8)
41.2% (19)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 6.8. Actual: 28. Off by 21.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Aidan O'Connell2218 yd · 12 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LVW6 2026 | BUF 33, LV 30 | BUF | W |
| BUF@LVW4 2020 | BUF 30, LV 23 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.8. The market has BUF at -7.5.
Buffalo Bills won, LV 10, BUF 38. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -7.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 2, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 33, LV 30 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: LV -0.037 against BUF +0.182.
