Bills vs Raiders – Week 4 2020
BUF
LV
BUF
AWAY
30@23
BUF BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 30, Las Vegas Raiders 23.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bills, 6 Raiders.
Model confidence: BUF 57%Our line: BUF -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -2.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.147Net EPA / play-0.085
+0.164 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.045 (13)
+0.017 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
50.2% (2)Offense success %46.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 2.2. Actual: 7. Off by 4.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
No noteworthy trends
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LVW6 2026 | BUF 33, LV 30 | BUF | W |
| LV@BUFW2 2023 | LV 10, BUF 38 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs LV
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 2.2. The market has BUF at -3.0.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 30, LV 23. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -3.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 4, the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 5.2 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 33, LV 30 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.147 against LV -0.085.
