Browns vs Cowboys – Week 4 2020
CLE
DAL
CLE
AWAY
49@38
CLE BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 49, Dallas Cowboys 38.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 48% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 48%Our line: CLE +0.8
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE +0.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
48%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.011Net EPA / play-0.098
+0.088 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (25)
+0.077 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.060 (20)
46.6% (9)Offense success %45.7% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 0.8. Actual: 11. Off by 11.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@CLEW1 2024 | DAL 33, CLE 17 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs DAL
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 48% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 0.8. The market has CLE at +3.5.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 49, DAL 38. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 48% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at +3.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 4, the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 56.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 10.5 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 33, CLE 17 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.011 against DAL -0.098.
