CLE @ DAL – Week 4 2020
CLE
DAL
CLE
AWAY
49@38
CLE BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: CLE 48%Our line: CLE +0.8
CLE
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.8
OUR LINE
+110
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.011Net EPA / play-0.098
+0.088Offense EPA / play-0.038
+0.077Defense EPA / play+0.060
46.6%Offense success %45.7%
46.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 0.8. Actual: 11. Off by 11.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +157 | -175 |
| Our fair price | +110 | -110 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CLE +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.65
OUR NUMBER
48%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
38%
DIFFERENCE
+10%
Both figures are for CLE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CLE
Baker Mayfield
QB
248.6 SEASON PPR
Kareem Hunt
RB
218.5 SEASON PPR
Nick Chubb
RB
207.7 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
Baker Mayfield3563 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Nick Chubb1067 yd · 12 TD
Kareem Hunt841 yd · 6 TD
D'Ernest Johnson166 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jarvis Landry72 rec · 840 yd · 3 TD
Rashard Higgins37 rec · 599 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@CLEW1 2024 | DAL 33, CLE 17 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 48% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 0.8. The market has CLE at +3.5.
The model projects 46.0 combined points. The market total is 56.5.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 33, CLE 17 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.011 against DAL -0.098.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
