Broncos vs Jets – Week 4 2020
DEN
NYJ
DEN
AWAY
37@28
DEN BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 37, New York Jets 28.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 3 Jets.
Model confidence: DEN 51%Our line: DEN -0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -0.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.147Net EPA / play-0.227
-0.104 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.143 (32)
+0.043 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.084 (25)
38.8% (32)Offense success %40.2% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 0.2. Actual: 9. Off by 8.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
Melvin Gordon
RB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Drew Lock
QB
181.3 SEASON PPR
Tim Patrick
WR
161.2 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Drew Lock2933 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Melvin Gordon986 yd · 9 TD
Phillip Lindsay502 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman170 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy52 rec · 856 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYJW6 2025 | DEN 13, NYJ 11 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2024 | DEN 10, NYJ 9 | NYJ | L |
| NYJ@DENW5 2023 | NYJ 31, DEN 21 | DEN | L |
| NYJ@DENW7 2022 | NYJ 16, DEN 9 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@DENW3 2021 | NYJ 0, DEN 26 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs NYJ
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 0.2. The market has DEN at +1.0.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 37, NYJ 28. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at +1.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 4, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 5.2 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 13, NYJ 11 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Denver Broncos: DEN -0.147 against NYJ -0.227.
