Jets vs Broncos – Week 3 2021
NYJ
DEN
NYJ
AWAY
0@26
DEN BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 0, Denver Broncos 26.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jets.
Model confidence: DEN 63%Our line: DEN -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -4.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.220Net EPA / play+0.004
-0.092 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
+0.128 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (18)
41.6% (23)Offense success %44.7% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 26. Off by 21.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2334 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
Elijah Moore43 rec · 538 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYJW6 2025 | DEN 13, NYJ 11 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2024 | DEN 10, NYJ 9 | NYJ | L |
| NYJ@DENW5 2023 | NYJ 31, DEN 21 | DEN | L |
| NYJ@DENW7 2022 | NYJ 16, DEN 9 | NYJ | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2020 | DEN 37, NYJ 28 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.3. The market has DEN at -10.5.
Denver Broncos won, NYJ 0, DEN 26. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -10.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 3, the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.4, 6.4 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 13, NYJ 11 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Denver Broncos: NYJ -0.220 against DEN +0.004.
