2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ DEN – Week 3 2021
NYJ
DEN
NYJ
AWAY
0@26
DEN +26
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DEN 63%Projected margin: 4.9
DEN
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
4.9
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 26. Off by 21.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -597 | Won · +$0.22 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
138.2SEASON PPR
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYJW6 2025 | DEN 13, NYJ 11 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2024 | DEN 10, NYJ 9 | NYJ | L |
| NYJ@DENW5 2023 | NYJ 31, DEN 21 | DEN | L |
| NYJ@DENW7 2022 | NYJ 16, DEN 9 | NYJ | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2020 | DEN 37, NYJ 28 | DEN | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES