NYJ @ DEN – Week 3 2021
NYJ
DEN
NYJ
AWAY
0@26
DEN BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 63%Our line: DEN -4.3
DEN
PICK SIDE
-10.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.3
OUR LINE
-167
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.220Net EPA / play+0.004
-0.092Offense EPA / play+0.015
+0.128Defense EPA / play+0.011
41.6%Offense success %44.7%
47.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 26. Off by 21.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +470 | -597 |
| Our fair price | +167 | -167 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -10.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.22
OUR NUMBER
63%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
83%
DIFFERENCE
-20%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
82°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NYJ
Michael Carter
RB
154.4 SEASON PPR
Zach Wilson
QB
151.9 SEASON PPR
Elijah Moore
WR
138.2 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2334 yd · 9 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Michael Carter639 yd · 4 TD
Tevin Coleman356 yd · 0 TD
Ty Johnson238 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Elijah Moore43 rec · 538 yd · 5 TD
Corey Davis34 rec · 492 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@NYJW6 2025 | DEN 13, NYJ 11 | DEN | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2024 | DEN 10, NYJ 9 | NYJ | L |
| NYJ@DENW5 2023 | NYJ 31, DEN 21 | DEN | L |
| NYJ@DENW7 2022 | NYJ 16, DEN 9 | NYJ | W |
| DEN@NYJW4 2020 | DEN 37, NYJ 28 | DEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.3. The market has DEN at -10.5.
The model projects 48.4 combined points. The market total is 42.0.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 13, NYJ 11 in Week 6 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Denver Broncos: NYJ -0.220 against DEN +0.004.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
