Packers vs 49ers – Week 3 2021
GB
SF
GB
AWAY
30@28
GB BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 30, San Francisco 49ers 28.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Packers, 3 49ers.
Model confidence: GB 58%Our line: GB -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
GB +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -2.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.127Net EPA / play+0.120
+0.134 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.087 (7)
+0.006 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.034 (8)
48.6% (3)Offense success %45.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 2.6. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@GBW12 2024 | SF 10, GB 38 | GB | W |
| GB@SFW9 2020 | GB 34, SF 17 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs SF
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 2.6. The market has GB at +3.5.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 30, SF 28. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at +3.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 3, the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.3, 1.2 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Green Bay Packers, SF 10, GB 38 in Week 12 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.127 against SF +0.120.
