GB @ SF – Week 3 2021
GB
SF
GB
AWAY
30@28
GB BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
Model confidence: GB 58%Our line: GB -2.6
GB
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.6
OUR LINE
-136
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.127Net EPA / play+0.120
+0.134Offense EPA / play+0.087
+0.006Defense EPA / play-0.034
48.6%Offense success %45.7%
46.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 2.6. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | GB | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 | -179 |
| Our fair price | -136 | +136 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.65
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
37%
DIFFERENCE
+20%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
GB
Davante Adams
WR
344.3 SEASON PPR
Aaron Rodgers
QB
333.3 SEASON PPR
Aaron Jones
RB
229.0 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
Aaron Rodgers4115 yd · 37 TD · 4 INT
RUSHING
AJ Dillon803 yd · 5 TD
Aaron Jones799 yd · 4 TD
Aaron Rodgers101 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Davante Adams123 rec · 1553 yd · 11 TD
Allen Lazard40 rec · 513 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@GBW12 2024 | SF 10, GB 38 | GB | W |
| GB@SFW9 2020 | GB 34, SF 17 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs SF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 2.6. The market has GB at +3.5.
The model projects 49.3 combined points. The market total is 50.5.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Green Bay Packers, SF 10, GB 38 in Week 12 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.127 against SF +0.120.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
