Bears vs Browns – Week 3 2021
CHI
CLE
CHI
AWAY
6@26
CLE BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 6, Cleveland Browns 26.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 2 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 57%Our line: CLE -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -2.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.127Net EPA / play+0.012
-0.100 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.013 (18)
+0.026 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.001 (14)
41.2% (26)Offense success %43.9% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 2.4. Actual: 20. Off by 17.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
HIGH WIND
22 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
22 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
219.7 SEASON PPR
195.0 SEASON PPR
126.8 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CHIW15 2025 | CLE 3, CHI 31 | CHI | W |
| CHI@CLEW15 2023 | CHI 17, CLE 20 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 2.4. The market has CLE at -7.5.
Cleveland Browns won, CHI 6, CLE 26. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -7.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 3, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.5, 4.5 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CLE 3, CHI 31 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cleveland Browns: CHI -0.127 against CLE +0.012.
