Colts vs Titans – Week 3 2021
IND
TEN
IND
AWAY
16@25
TEN BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 16, Tennessee Titans 25.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts, 3 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 51%Our line: TEN -0.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -0.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.045Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.051 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.022 (15)
+0.006 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.033 (9)
44.3% (16)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 0.4. Actual: 9. Off by 8.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Carson Wentz3563 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW6 2026 | TEN 26, IND 20 | IND | L |
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TEN by 0.4. The market has TEN at -4.5.
Tennessee Titans won, IND 16, TEN 25. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at -4.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 3, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.7, 1.7 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 26, IND 20 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tennessee Titans: IND +0.045 against TEN +0.055.
