2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ JAX – Week 9 2021
BUF
JAX
BUF
AWAY
6@9
JAX +3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER S
PICK: BUF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 78%Projected margin: -13.3
BUF
PICK SIDE
-14.5
SPREAD
-13.3
PROJ MARGIN
-806
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but JAX won. Projected margin was 13.3 -- the model overestimated by 16.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -806 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -1101 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2SEASON PPR
James Robinson
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@BUFW3 2024 | JAX 10, BUF 47 | BUF | W |
| JAX@BUFW5 2023 | JAX 25, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES