Bills vs Jaguars – Week 9 2021
BUF
JAX
BUF
AWAY
6@9
JAX BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 9.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 78% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 78%Our line: BUF -10.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -14.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -10.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.242Net EPA / play-0.206
+0.101 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (26)
-0.141 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.118 (31)
47.7% (5)Offense success %44.0% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but JAX won. Projected margin was 10.6, the model overestimated by 13.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@BUFW3 2024 | JAX 10, BUF 47 | BUF | W |
| JAX@BUFW5 2023 | JAX 25, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs JAX
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 78% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 10.6. The market has BUF at -14.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, BUF 6, JAX 9. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 78% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -14.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 14.5 points.
In Week 9, the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.3, 0.3 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, JAX 10, BUF 47 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.242 against JAX -0.206.
