BUF @ JAX – Week 9 2021
BUF
JAX
BUF
AWAY
6@9
JAX BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 78%Our line: BUF -10.6
BUF
PICK SIDE
-14.5
MARKET SPREAD
-10.6
OUR LINE
-363
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.242Net EPA / play-0.206
+0.101Offense EPA / play-0.088
-0.141Defense EPA / play+0.118
47.7%Offense success %44.0%
39.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF S-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BUF but JAX won. Projected margin was 10.6, the model overestimated by 13.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -1101 | +776 |
| Our fair price | -363 | +363 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -14.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
78%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
89%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6 SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5 SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
197.8 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
Josh Allen4407 yd · 36 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Devin Singletary870 yd · 7 TD
Josh Allen763 yd · 6 TD
Zack Moss345 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Stefon Diggs103 rec · 1225 yd · 10 TD
Cole Beasley82 rec · 693 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@BUFW3 2024 | JAX 10, BUF 47 | BUF | W |
| JAX@BUFW5 2023 | JAX 25, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 78% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BUF by 10.6. The market has BUF at -14.5.
The model projects 48.3 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, JAX 10, BUF 47 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.242 against JAX -0.206.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
