Broncos vs Cowboys – Week 9 2021
DEN
DAL
DEN
AWAY
30@16
DEN BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 30, Dallas Cowboys 16.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos, 2 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 66%Our line: DAL -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -5.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.004Net EPA / play+0.187
+0.015 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.096 (5)
+0.011 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
44.7% (14)Offense success %47.0% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but DEN won. Projected margin was 5.5, the model overestimated by 19.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 24.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
204.9 SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7 SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3052 yd · 18 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@DENW8 2025 | DAL 24, DEN 44 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 66% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DAL by 5.5. The market has DAL at -10.5.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 30, DAL 16. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -10.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 9, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 3.2 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Denver Broncos, DAL 24, DEN 44 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Dallas Cowboys: DEN +0.004 against DAL +0.187.
