2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ DAL – Week 9 2021
DEN
DAL
DEN
AWAY
30@16
DEN +14
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER A
PICK: DAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 66%Projected margin: 6.4
DAL
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
6.4
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL A-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but DEN won. Projected margin was 6.4 -- the model overestimated by 20.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 24.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -462 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
DAL
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 5-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1SEASON PPR
DAL
Dak Prescott
QB
320.6SEASON PPR
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
252.1SEASON PPR
CeeDee Lamb
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@DENW8 2025 | DAL 24, DEN 44 | DEN | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES