Browns vs Bengals – Week 9 2021
CLE
CIN
CLE
AWAY
41@16
CLE BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 41, Cincinnati Bengals 16.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 50%Our line: CLE -0.1
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -0.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.012Net EPA / play+0.069
+0.013 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.057 (12)
+0.001 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (13)
43.9% (19)Offense success %44.2% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 0.1. Actual: 25. Off by 24.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 27.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CIN
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@CINW18 2025 | CLE 20, CIN 18 | CIN | L |
| CIN@CLEW1 2025 | CIN 17, CLE 16 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW16 2024 | CLE 6, CIN 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@CLEW7 2024 | CIN 21, CLE 14 | CIN | W |
| CLE@CINW18 2023 | CLE 14, CIN 31 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs CIN
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CLE by 0.1. The market has CLE at +2.5.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 41, CIN 16. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at +2.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 9, the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 0.7 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 20, CIN 18 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CLE +0.012 against CIN +0.069.
