Bears vs Steelers – Week 9 2021
CHI
PIT
CHI
AWAY
27@29
PIT BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 29.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Bears, 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 63%Our line: PIT -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -4.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.127Net EPA / play-0.090
-0.100 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (25)
+0.026 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (19)
41.2% (26)Offense success %39.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 4.6. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CHI
219.7 SEASON PPR
195.0 SEASON PPR
126.8 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CHIW12 2025 | PIT 28, CHI 31 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 4.6. The market has PIT at -7.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, CHI 27, PIT 29. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -7.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 9, the Chicago Bears were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 6.5 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Chicago Bears, PIT 28, CHI 31 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: CHI -0.127 against PIT -0.090.
