Vikings vs Ravens – Week 9 2021
MIN
BAL
MIN
AWAY
31@34
BAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 31, Baltimore Ravens 34.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Vikings, 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 60%Our line: BAL -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -3.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.065
+0.017 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (19)
-0.018 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (27)
41.4% (24)Offense success %46.4% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 3.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@MINW10 2025 | BAL 27, MIN 19 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.4. The market has BAL at -7.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, MIN 31, BAL 34. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 9, the Minnesota Vikings were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.6, 2.4 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 27, MIN 19 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.035 against BAL -0.065.
