2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIN @ BAL – Week 9 2021
MIN
BAL
MIN
AWAY
31@34
BAL +3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2021 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 60%Projected margin: 4.8
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
4.8
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 4.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -305 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIN
No noteworthy trends
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
56°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
330.4SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
300.3SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
206.3SEASON PPR
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@MINW10 2025 | BAL 27, MIN 19 | BAL | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES