NE @ BUF – Week 13 2021
NE
BUF
NE
AWAY
14@10
NE BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: NE 49%Our line: NE +0.2
NE
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
+0.2
OUR LINE
+102
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.135Net EPA / play+0.242
+0.069Offense EPA / play+0.101
-0.066Defense EPA / play-0.141
48.4%Offense success %47.7%
42.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 0.2. Actual: 4. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
HIGH WIND
27 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +132 | -146 |
| Our fair price | +102 | -102 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
49%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
42%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
27 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
Mac Jones
QB
224.9 SEASON PPR
Damien Harris
RB
210.1 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
186.3 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Mac Jones3801 yd · 22 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris929 yd · 15 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson606 yd · 5 TD
Brandon Bolden226 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers83 rec · 866 yd · 2 TD
Kendrick Bourne55 rec · 800 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| NE@BUFW17 2023 | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 49% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BUF by 0.2. The market has NE at +3.0.
The model projects 46.8 combined points. The market total is 40.0.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 35, NE 31 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: NE +0.135 against BUF +0.242.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
