Patriots vs Bills – Week 13 2021
NE
BUF
NE
AWAY
14@10
NE BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 14, Buffalo Bills 10.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 49% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: NE 49%Our line: NE +0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
NE +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE +0.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
49%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.135Net EPA / play+0.242
+0.069 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.101 (4)
-0.066 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.141 (1)
48.4% (4)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 0.2. Actual: 4. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
HIGH WIND
27 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
27 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BUFW4 2026 | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs BUF
Our model takes New England Patriots at 49% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BUF by 0.2. The market has NE at +3.0.
New England Patriots won, NE 14, BUF 10. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 49% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at +3.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 3.0 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 6.8 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 29, BUF 26 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: NE +0.135 against BUF +0.242.
