PHI @ NYJ – Week 13 2021
PHI
NYJ
PHI
AWAY
33@18
PHI BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 60%Our line: PHI -3.3
PHI
PICK SIDE
-5.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.3
OUR LINE
-148
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.220
+0.070Offense EPA / play-0.092
+0.011Defense EPA / play+0.128
46.9%Offense success %41.6%
46.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 15. Off by 11.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -199 | +177 |
| Our fair price | -148 | +148 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -5.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.49
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
65%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
312.2 SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
185.6 SEASON PPR
Dallas Goedert
TE
165.0 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Jalen Hurts3144 yd · 16 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Jalen Hurts784 yd · 10 TD
Miles Sanders754 yd · 0 TD
Jordan Howard406 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
DeVonta Smith64 rec · 916 yd · 5 TD
Dallas Goedert56 rec · 830 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@NYJW6 2023 | PHI 14, NYJ 20 | PHI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 3.3. The market has PHI at -5.0.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, PHI 14, NYJ 20 in Week 6 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.059 against NYJ -0.220.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
