Eagles vs Jets – Week 13 2021
PHI
NYJ
PHI
AWAY
33@18
PHI BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 33, New York Jets 18.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Eagles, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: PHI 60%Our line: PHI -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -5.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.220
+0.070 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.092 (27)
+0.011 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.128 (32)
46.9% (8)Offense success %41.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 15. Off by 11.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@NYJW6 2023 | PHI 14, NYJ 20 | PHI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs NYJ
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 3.3. The market has PHI at -5.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 33, NYJ 18. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -5.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 5.0 points.
In Week 13, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 2.2 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, PHI 14, NYJ 20 in Week 6 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.059 against NYJ -0.220.
