Eagles vs Jets – Week 6 2023
PHI
NYJ
PHI
AWAY
14@20
NYJ BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 14, New York Jets 20.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 77% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Eagles, 3 Jets.
Model confidence: PHI 77%Our line: PHI -9.8
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -9.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.005Net EPA / play-0.133
+0.054 (8)Offense EPA / play-0.252 (32)
+0.049 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.119 (3)
45.9% (7)Offense success %35.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but NYJ won. Projected margin was 9.8, the model overestimated by 15.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
59°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@NYJW13 2021 | PHI 33, NYJ 18 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs NYJ
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PHI by 9.8. The market has PHI at -6.5.
New York Jets won, PHI 14, NYJ 20. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 77% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -6.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 6, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 3.2 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, PHI 33, NYJ 18 in Week 13 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.005 against NYJ -0.133.
