Saints vs Texans – Week 6 2023
NO
HOU
NO
AWAY
13@20
HOU BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 13, Houston Texans 20.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Saints.
Model confidence: HOU 50%Our line: HOU +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.086Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.014 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (15)
-0.100 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (13)
42.1% (15)Offense success %40.9% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 7. Off by 7.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Derek Carr3878 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NO by 0.0. The market has HOU at +2.0.
Houston Texans won, NO 13, HOU 20. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at +2.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 6, the New Orleans Saints were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 3.2 above the market.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.086 against HOU +0.014.
