2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ HOU – Week 6 2023
NO
HOU
NO
AWAY
13@20
HOU +7
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER C
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: HOU 50%Projected margin: -0.8
HOU
PICK SIDE
+2.0
SPREAD
-0.8
PROJ MARGIN
+133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 0.8. Actual: 7. Off by 7.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.0 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | +133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +110 | Won · +$1.33 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NO
Derek Carr
QB
241.1SEASON PPR
Alvin Kamara
RB
233.0SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
231.3SEASON PPR
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES