Vikings vs Bears – Week 6 2023
MIN
CHI
MIN
AWAY
19@13
MIN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 19, Chicago Bears 13.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Bears.
Model confidence: MIN 71%Our line: MIN -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -7.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.023Net EPA / play-0.007
-0.041 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (19)
-0.018 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.042 (14)
42.4% (13)Offense success %41.8% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 7.5. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins2331 yd · 18 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Alexander Mattison700 yd · 0 TD
Ty Chandler461 yd · 3 TD
Joshua Dobbs163 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CHIW2 2026 | MIN 9, CHI 3 | CHI | L |
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CHI
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 71% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 7.5. The market has MIN at -3.0.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 19, CHI 13. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.0, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 6, the Chicago Bears were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.0, 0.5 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 9, CHI 3 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: MIN -0.023 against CHI -0.007.
