DAL @ LAC – Week 6 2023
DAL
LAC
DAL
AWAY
20@17
DAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: LAC 57%Our line: LAC -2.4
LAC
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.4
OUR LINE
-132
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.220Net EPA / play-0.088
+0.106Offense EPA / play-0.076
-0.114Defense EPA / play+0.012
47.4%Offense success %41.0%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but DAL won. Projected margin was 2.4, the model overestimated by 5.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -130 | +110 |
| Our fair price | +132 | -132 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LAC +1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
57%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
46%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
Both figures are for LAC. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DAL
CeeDee Lamb
WR
403.2 SEASON PPR
Dak Prescott
QB
342.8 SEASON PPR
Tony Pollard
RB
222.6 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
Dak Prescott4516 yd · 36 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Tony Pollard1005 yd · 6 TD
Rico Dowdle361 yd · 2 TD
Dak Prescott242 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
CeeDee Lamb135 rec · 1749 yd · 12 TD
Jake Ferguson71 rec · 761 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@DALW16 2025 | LAC 34, DAL 17 | LAC | W |
| DAL@LACW2 2021 | DAL 20, LAC 17 | LAC | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 2.4. The market has LAC at +1.5.
The model projects 45.7 combined points. The market total is 49.5.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 34, DAL 17 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.220 against LAC -0.088.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
