Cowboys vs Chargers – Week 6 2023
DAL
LAC
DAL
AWAY
20@17
DAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 20, Los Angeles Chargers 17.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Cowboys, 2 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 57%Our line: LAC -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -2.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
+0.220Net EPA / play-0.088
+0.106 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.076 (24)
-0.114 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.012 (25)
47.4% (3)Offense success %41.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but DAL won. Projected margin was 2.4, the model overestimated by 5.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@DALW16 2025 | LAC 34, DAL 17 | LAC | W |
| DAL@LACW2 2021 | DAL 20, LAC 17 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 57% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 2.4. The market has LAC at +1.5.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 20, LAC 17. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at +1.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 6, the Dallas Cowboys were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 3.8 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 34, DAL 17 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.220 against LAC -0.088.
