Cardinals vs Rams – Week 6 2023
ARI
LA
ARI
AWAY
9@26
LA BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 9, Los Angeles Rams 26.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cardinals.
Model confidence: LA 64%Our line: LA -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -4.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.157Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.071 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.039 (9)
+0.085 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (22)
40.5% (25)Offense success %44.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LA. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 17. Off by 12.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray1799 yd · 10 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Conner1040 yd · 7 TD
Emari Demercado284 yd · 2 TD
Joshua Dobbs258 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Trey McBride81 rec · 825 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@LAW6 2026 | ARI 18, LA 16 | LA | L |
| ARI@LAW18 2025 | ARI 20, LA 37 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW14 2025 | LA 45, ARI 17 | LA | W |
| ARI@LAW17 2024 | ARI 9, LA 13 | LA | W |
| LA@ARIW2 2024 | LA 10, ARI 41 | LA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 4.7. The market has LA at -7.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, ARI 9, LA 26. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -7.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 6, the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 2.2 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 18, LA 16 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Rams: ARI -0.157 against LA +0.048.
