Broncos vs Chiefs – Week 6 2023
DEN
KC
DEN
AWAY
8@19
KC BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 8, Kansas City Chiefs 19.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 86% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Broncos.
Model confidence: KC 86%Our line: KC -14.9
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -14.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 6
-0.077Net EPA / play+0.107
-0.058 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.021 (10)
+0.019 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.086 (6)
42.1% (14)Offense success %43.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 14.9. Actual: 11. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9 SEASON PPR
190.2 SEASON PPR
179.2 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3070 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW1 2026 | DEN 10, KC 31 | DEN | L |
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 86% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project KC by 14.9. The market has KC at -10.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, DEN 8, KC 19. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 86% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -10.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 6, the Denver Broncos were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 1.6 below the market.
Week 6 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, DEN 10, KC 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: DEN -0.077 against KC +0.107.
