2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ KC – Week 6 2023
DEN
KC
DEN
AWAY
8@19
KC +11
FINAL · WEEK 6
2023 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER S
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 86%Projected margin: 13.9
KC
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
13.9
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 13.9. Actual: 11 points. The model was within 2.9 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -650 | Won · +$0.22 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
No noteworthy trends
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
190.2SEASON PPR
Javonte Williams
RB
179.2SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
280.2SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
219.4SEASON PPR
Isiah Pacheco
INJURY REPORTWEEK 6
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
WEEK 6 · OTHER GAMES