Chargers vs Cowboys – Week 16 2025
LAC
DAL
LAC
AWAY
34@17
LAC BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 34, Dallas Cowboys 17.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers, 2 Cowboys.
Model confidence: LAC 60%Our line: LAC -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.070
-0.024 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (5)
-0.083 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.167 (32)
43.1% (19)Offense success %46.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 3.4. Actual: 17. Off by 13.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@LACW6 2023 | DAL 20, LAC 17 | LAC | L |
| DAL@LACW2 2021 | DAL 20, LAC 17 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs DAL
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.4. The market has LAC at +1.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 34, DAL 17. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at +1.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 16, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 4.6 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 20, LAC 17 in Week 6 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.059 against DAL -0.070.
