2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ TEN – Week 16 2025
KC
TEN
KC
AWAY
9@26
TEN +17
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 69%Projected margin: -4.0
KC
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-4.0
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but TEN won. Projected margin was 4.0 -- the model overestimated by 21.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
150.1SEASON PPR
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@KCW9 2022 | TEN 17, KC 20 | KC | W |
| KC@TENW7 2021 | KC 3, TEN 27 | TEN | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES