Chiefs vs Titans – Week 16 2025
KC
TEN
KC
AWAY
9@26
TEN BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 9, Tennessee Titans 26.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 9 Chiefs, 4 Titans.
Model confidence: KC 69%Our line: KC -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -6.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.055Net EPA / play-0.260
+0.035 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.160 (30)
-0.020 (12)Defense EPA / play+0.100 (28)
44.5% (14)Offense success %37.4% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but TEN won. Projected margin was 6.6, the model overestimated by 23.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
51°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@KCW9 2022 | TEN 17, KC 20 | KC | W |
| KC@TENW7 2021 | KC 3, TEN 27 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs TEN
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 6.6. The market has KC at -3.5.
Tennessee Titans won, KC 9, TEN 26. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 16, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 9 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 7.5 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, TEN 17, KC 20 in Week 9 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.055 against TEN -0.260.
