LV @ HOU – Week 16 2025
LV
HOU
LV
AWAY
21@23
HOU BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 86%Our line: HOU -14.6
HOU
PICK SIDE
-14.5
MARKET SPREAD
-14.6
OUR LINE
-618
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.118
-0.215Offense EPA / play-0.013
+0.024Defense EPA / play-0.131
37.6%Offense success %41.3%
45.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 14.6. Actual: 2. Off by 12.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +900 | -1600 |
| Our fair price | +618 | -618 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -14.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.12
OUR NUMBER
86%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
90%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1 SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2 SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Smith3025 yd · 19 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
A.Jeanty975 yd · 5 TD
G.Smith109 yd · 0 TD
R.Mostert104 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Tucker57 rec · 696 yd · 5 TD
B.Bowers64 rec · 680 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 86% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project HOU by 14.6. The market has HOU at -14.5.
The model projects 46.4 combined points. The market total is 39.5.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, HOU 20, LV 38 in Week 7 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: LV -0.240 against HOU +0.118.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
