2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ HOU – Week 16 2025
LV
HOU
LV
AWAY
21@23
HOU +2
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER S
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 86%Projected margin: 14.2
HOU
PICK SIDE
-14.5
SPREAD
14.2
PROJ MARGIN
-806
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 14.2. Actual: 2. Off by 12.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -806 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.12 |
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9SEASON PPR
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@LVW7 2022 | HOU 20, LV 38 | LV | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES