Raiders vs Texans – Week 16 2025
LV
HOU
LV
AWAY
21@23
HOU BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 21, Houston Texans 23.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 86% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: HOU 86%Our line: HOU -14.6
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -14.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -14.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.118
-0.215 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.013 (21)
+0.024 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.131 (1)
37.6% (30)Offense success %41.3% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 14.6. Actual: 2. Off by 12.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 86% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project HOU by 14.6. The market has HOU at -14.5.
Houston Texans won, LV 21, HOU 23. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 86% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -14.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 14.5 points.
In Week 16, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 6.9 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, HOU 20, LV 38 in Week 7 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: LV -0.240 against HOU +0.118.
