Texans vs Raiders – Week 7 2022
HOU
LV
HOU
AWAY
20@38
LV BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 20, Las Vegas Raiders 38.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Texans, 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 62%Our line: LV -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -4.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.189 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.000 (17)
+0.003 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.064 (29)
36.9% (32)Offense success %43.1% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 4.0. Actual: 18. Off by 14.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@HOUW16 2025 | LV 21, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 4.0. The market has LV at -7.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, HOU 20, LV 38. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -7.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 7, the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 0.4 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Houston Texans, LV 21, HOU 23 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Las Vegas Raiders: HOU -0.192 against LV -0.064.
