2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ LV – Week 7 2022
HOU
LV
HOU
AWAY
20@38
LV +18
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LV
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LV 62%Projected margin: 4.1
LV
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
4.1
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 4.1. Actual: 18. Off by 13.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -325 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
145.6SEASON PPR
LV
Davante Adams
WR
335.5SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
328.3SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@HOUW16 2025 | LV 21, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES