NO @ ARI – Week 7 2022
NO
ARI
NO
AWAY
34@42
ARI BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: NO 58%Our line: NO -2.7
NO
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.7
OUR LINE
-137
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.104
-0.038Offense EPA / play-0.088
-0.056Defense EPA / play+0.016
45.7%Offense success %40.6%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but ARI won. Projected margin was 2.7, the model overestimated by 10.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +126 | -140 |
| Our fair price | -137 | +137 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
43%
DIFFERENCE
+15%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7 SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2 SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
174.2 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Andy Dalton2871 yd · 18 TD · 9 INT
RUSHING
Alvin Kamara897 yd · 2 TD
Mark Ingram233 yd · 1 TD
Rashid Shaheed57 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Olave72 rec · 1042 yd · 4 TD
Juwan Johnson42 rec · 508 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@NOW1 2025 | ARI 20, NO 13 | ARI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 2.7. The market has NO at +2.5.
The model projects 46.8 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 20, NO 13 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.018 against ARI -0.104.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
