Saints vs Cardinals – Week 7 2022
NO
ARI
NO
AWAY
34@42
ARI BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 7
2022 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 34, Arizona Cardinals 42.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Saints, 5 Cardinals.
Model confidence: NO 58%Our line: NO -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NO +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -2.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.104
-0.038 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (28)
-0.056 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (23)
45.7% (8)Offense success %40.6% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick misses. ARI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but ARI won. Projected margin was 2.7, the model overestimated by 10.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Andy Dalton2871 yd · 18 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@NOW1 2025 | ARI 20, NO 13 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs ARI
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 2.7. The market has NO at +2.5.
Arizona Cardinals won, NO 34, ARI 42. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at +2.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 7, the New Orleans Saints were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 2.8 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2022 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 20, NO 13 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.018 against ARI -0.104.
