2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ NO – Week 1 2025
ARI
NO
ARI
AWAY
20@13
ARI +7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ARI
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: ARI 68%Projected margin: -3.3
ARI
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-3.3
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 7. Off by 3.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
220.6SEASON PPR
NO
C.Olave
WR
268.0SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
179.9SEASON PPR
T.Shough
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@ARIW7 2022 | NO 34, ARI 42 | NO | L |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES