ARI @ NO – Week 1 2025
ARI
NO
ARI
AWAY
20@13
ARI BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 68%Our line: ARI -6.2
ARI
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.2
OUR LINE
-209
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.029
-0.018Offense EPA / play-0.088
+0.088Defense EPA / play-0.059
43.0%Offense success %42.0%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ARI by 6.2. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -270 | +220 |
| Our fair price | -209 | +209 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9 SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4 SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
220.6 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
J.Brissett3366 yd · 23 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
M.Carter333 yd · 1 TD
E.Demercado312 yd · 0 TD
Z.Knight269 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride126 rec · 1239 yd · 11 TD
Mi.Wilson78 rec · 1006 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 6.2. The market has ARI at -6.0.
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, NO 34, ARI 42 in Week 7 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New Orleans Saints: ARI -0.107 against NO -0.029.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
