Cardinals vs Saints – Week 1 2025
ARI
NO
ARI
AWAY
20@13
ARI BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 20, New Orleans Saints 13.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cardinals, 2 Saints.
Model confidence: ARI 68%Our line: ARI -6.2
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -6.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
ARI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
71%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
| SOURCE | ARI | NO | ARI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -270 | +220 | 70.9% |
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.029
-0.018 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (27)
+0.088 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.059 (10)
43.0% (22)Offense success %42.0% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ARI by 6.2. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs NO
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 6.2. The market has ARI at -6.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 20, NO 13. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -6.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 1, the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, NO 34, ARI 42 in Week 7 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New Orleans Saints: ARI -0.107 against NO -0.029.
