49ers vs Seahawks – Week 1 2025
SF
SEA
SF
AWAY
17@13
SF BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 17, Seattle Seahawks 13.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 49ers, 3 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 63%Our line: SEA -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -4.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
SEA · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
45%
DIFFERENCE
+18%
| SOURCE | SF | SEA | SEA WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -135 | +114 | 44.6% |
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.018Net EPA / play+0.150
+0.088 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.033 (13)
+0.070 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.117 (2)
48.3% (4)Offense success %46.3% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but SF won. Projected margin was 4.6, the model overestimated by 8.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
No noteworthy trends
SEA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@SEAW5 2026 | SF 32, SEA 29 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SEA@SFW11 2024 | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW6 2024 | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF | W |
| SEA@SFW14 2023 | SEA 16, SF 28 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 4.6. The market has SEA at +2.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 17, SEA 13. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at +2.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 1, the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 32, SEA 29 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: SF +0.018 against SEA +0.150.
