2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ SEA – Week 1 2025
SF
SEA
SF
AWAY
17@13
SF +4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
SEA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SEA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SEA 63%Projected margin: 3.3
SEA
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
3.3
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but SF won. Projected margin was 3.3 -- the model overestimated by 7.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | SEA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +143 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SF
C.McCaffrey
RB
416.6SEASON PPR
B.Purdy
QB
177.4SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
173.3SEASON PPR
SEA
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
359.9SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
235.4SEASON PPR
K.Walker
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SEA@SFW11 2024 | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW6 2024 | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF | W |
| SEA@SFW14 2023 | SEA 16, SF 28 | SF | W |
| SF@SEAW12 2023 | SF 31, SEA 13 | SF | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES