HOU @ LA – Week 1 2025
HOU
LA
HOU
AWAY
9@14
LA BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
Model confidence: LA 68%Our line: LA -6.5
LA
PICK SIDE
-3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.5
OUR LINE
-217
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.118Net EPA / play+0.206
-0.013Offense EPA / play+0.145
-0.131Defense EPA / play-0.061
41.3%Offense success %51.8%
38.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LA by 6.5. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +140 | -166 |
| Our fair price | +217 | -217 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA -3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.61
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
+8%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
No noteworthy trends
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2 SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5 SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
177.7 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.Stroud3041 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
W.Marks703 yd · 2 TD
N.Chubb506 yd · 3 TD
C.Stroud209 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
N.Collins71 rec · 1117 yd · 6 TD
D.Schultz82 rec · 777 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs LA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 6.5. The market has LA at -3.5.
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, LA 38, HOU 22 in Week 8 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: HOU +0.118 against LA +0.206.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
