CAR @ JAX · Week 1 2025

Q: Who is favored in Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars?

Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 3.8. The market has JAX at -4.5.

Q: When do the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars play?

Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.

Q: Who won the last Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars game?

Jacksonville Jaguars, CAR 0, JAX 26 in Week 17 of 2023.

Q: Which team has been better, the Carolina Panthers or the Jacksonville Jaguars?

By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: CAR -0.107 against JAX +0.136.

CAR

JAX

CAR

AWAY

10@26

JAX BY 16

FINAL · WEEK 1

2025 SEASON

EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL

JAX

HOME

PICK: JAX

TIER B

PICK WONATS ✓

CAR 39%

JAX 61%

Model confidence: JAX 61%

Our line: JAX -3.8

JAX

PICK SIDE

-4.5

MARKET SPREAD

-3.8

OUR LINE

-157

OUR ML

—

LIVE ML

COVERED

VS SPREAD

TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1

CAR	METRIC	JAX
-0.107	NET EPA/PLAY	+0.136
-0.039	OFF EPA/PLAY	+0.030
+0.067	DEF EPA/PLAY	-0.105
311	POINTS FOR	474
380	POINTS AGAINST	336
55.3%	PASS RATE	56.2%

EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE

-0.107Net EPA / play+0.136

-0.039Offense EPA / play+0.030

+0.067Defense EPA / play-0.105

43.1%Offense success %44.4%

44.3%Defense success %

GAME NARRATIVE

JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.

CORRECT

Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 16. Off by 12.2 points but directionally right.

INSTANT CLASSIC

The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.

COVERED

This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.

Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.

BETTING LINE

SOURCE	CAR	JAX
Closing line	+170	-205
Our fair price	+157	-157

Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.

SPREAD JAX -4.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.52

OUR NUMBER

61%

MARKET, VIG REMOVED

64%

DIFFERENCE

-3%

Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.

SITUATIONAL TRENDS

Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.

CAR

Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)

JAX

Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)

GAME WEATHER

VENUE

OUTDOOR

TEMP

85°F

WIND

3 MPH

IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY

TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON

CAR

B.Young

QB

218.0 SEASON PPR

R.Dowdle

RB

216.3 SEASON PPR

T.McMillan

WR

213.4 SEASON PPR

JAX

DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT

Carolina Panthers

PASSING

B.Young3011 yd · 23 TD · 11 INT

RUSHING

R.Dowdle1076 yd · 6 TD

C.Hubbard511 yd · 1 TD

B.Young216 yd · 2 TD

RECEIVING

T.McMillan70 rec · 1014 yd · 7 TD

J.Coker33 rec · 394 yd · 3 TD

INJURY REPORTWEEK 1

CAR2 LISTED

Damarri Mathis

CB · Knee

OUT

Ikem Ekwonu

T · Illness

DOUBTFUL

JAX3 LISTED

HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING

GAME	SCORE	PICK	RESULT
CAR@JAXW17 2023	CAR 0, JAX 26	JAX	W

FULL COMPARISON →

COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs JAX

QUESTIONS

Who is favored in Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars?

When do the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars play?

Who won the last Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars game?

Which team has been better, the Carolina Panthers or the Jacksonville Jaguars?

WHAT PRO ADDS

Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.

See the Edge