2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ JAX – Week 1 2025
CAR
JAX
CAR
AWAY
10@26
JAX +16
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 61%Projected margin: 2.2
JAX
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
2.2
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 2.2. Actual: 16. Off by 13.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
3 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CAR
B.Young
QB
218.0SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
216.3SEASON PPR
T.McMillan
WR
213.4SEASON PPR
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@JAXW17 2023 | CAR 0, JAX 26 | JAX | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES