Panthers vs Jaguars – Week 1 2025
CAR
JAX
CAR
AWAY
10@26
JAX BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 26.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Panthers, 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 61%Our line: JAX -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -3.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
JAX · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
65%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
| SOURCE | CAR | JAX | JAX WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +170 | -205 | 65.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average. Last synced Sun 7:59 PM ET.
RESULT Won · +$0.52
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.039 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.030 (14)
+0.067 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.105 (3)
43.1% (21)Offense success %44.4% (15)
44.3% (16)Defense success %41.3% (6)
-0.050 (25)Pass EPA / play+0.059 (11)
-0.026 (22)Rush EPA / play-0.006 (18)
18.3 (27)Points / game27.9 (6)
22.4 (15)Points allowed / game19.8 (8)
55.3%Pass rate56.2%
55.0%Red zone TD %82.6%
32.2%4th down go %24.6%
PanthersJaguars
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 3.8. Actual: 16. Off by 12.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
NEXT GEN STATS
EXP COMP %
67.2%
Trevor LawrenceJAX
TIME TO THROW
2.66s
Bryce YoungCAR
SEPARATION
3.4 yds
Xavier LegetteCAR
RUSH EFFICIENCY
2.2
Travis EtienneJAX
AGGRESSIVENESS
12.9%
Trevor LawrenceJAX
AVG YAC
3.8 yds
Travis HunterJAX
GREEN = ELITE VS LEAGUE
SOURCE: NFL NEXT GEN STATS
CAR ADVANCED STATS
PASSING
BAD THROW %
17.0%
DROP %
4.2%
PRESSURE %
23.3%
RUSHING
YBC/ATT
2.7
YAC/ATT
1.4
BROKEN TACKLES
18
DEFENSE
COMP% ALLOWED
68.1%
PASSER RTG ALLOWED
85.7
MISSED TACKLE %
10.1%
SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2025 SEASON
JAX ADVANCED STATS
PASSING
BAD THROW %
12.4%
DROP %
6.8%
PRESSURE %
23.1%
RUSHING
YBC/ATT
2.5
YAC/ATT
1.5
BROKEN TACKLES
22
DEFENSE
COMP% ALLOWED
65.9%
PASSER RTG ALLOWED
80.5
MISSED TACKLE %
8.8%
SOURCE: PRO FOOTBALL REFERENCE · 2025 SEASON
CAR SCHEME RATES
18 GAMES
PLAY ACTION
25.3%
BLITZ RATE
26.2%
MOTION
35.0%
RPO
7.8%
SCREEN
7.4%
NO HUDDLE
4.6%
AVG PASS RUSHERS
4.3
SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2025 SEASON
JAX SCHEME RATES
18 GAMES
PLAY ACTION
23.9%
BLITZ RATE
26.3%
MOTION
47.2%
RPO
3.6%
SCREEN
8.7%
NO HUDDLE
6.0%
AVG PASS RUSHERS
4.3
SOURCE: FTN CHARTING · 2025 SEASON
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
JAX win probability from kickoff to the final whistle, the game’s actual in-game trajectory, not our pregame pick. Source: nflfastR play-by-play
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
B.Young3011 yd · 23 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
T.McMillan70 rec · 1014 yd · 7 TD
J.Coker33 rec · 394 yd · 3 TD
X.Legette35 rec · 363 yd · 3 TD
R.Dowdle39 rec · 297 yd · 1 TD
VS
PASS yds
3,0114,007
RUSH yds
1,8031,773
REC yds
2,0682,577
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence4007 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
P.Washington58 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
B.Thomas48 rec · 707 yd · 2 TD
B.Strange46 rec · 540 yd · 3 TD
J.Meyers42 rec · 483 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@JAXW17 2023 | CAR 0, JAX 26 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 3.8. The market has JAX at -4.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, CAR 10, JAX 26. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -4.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 1, the Carolina Panthers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, CAR 0, JAX 26 in Week 17 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: CAR -0.107 against JAX +0.136.