2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ GB – Week 1 2025
DET
GB
DET
AWAY
13@27
GB +14
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
GB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DET
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DET 64%Projected margin: -1.9
DET
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-1.9
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but GB won. Projected margin was 1.9 -- the model overestimated by 15.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +124 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
366.9SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
324.0SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
297.1SEASON PPR
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
237.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
235.1SEASON PPR
R.Doubs
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW4 2023 | DET 34, GB 20 | DET | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES