Lions vs Packers – Week 1 2025
DET
GB
DET
AWAY
13@27
GB BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 13, Green Bay Packers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 64%Our line: DET -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DET +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -4.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
DET · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
48%
DIFFERENCE
+16%
| SOURCE | DET | GB | DET WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +100 | -120 | 47.7% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.091Net EPA / play+0.082
+0.081 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.115 (4)
-0.010 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (22)
45.2% (12)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but GB won. Projected margin was 4.9, the model overestimated by 18.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW4 2023 | DET 34, GB 20 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs GB
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 4.9. The market has DET at +1.5.
Green Bay Packers won, DET 13, GB 27. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at +1.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 1, the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, DET 24 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against GB +0.082.
