DET @ GB – Week 1 2025
DET
GB
DET
AWAY
13@27
GB BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: DET 64%Our line: DET -4.9
DET
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.9
OUR LINE
-180
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.091Net EPA / play+0.082
+0.081Offense EPA / play+0.115
-0.010Defense EPA / play+0.033
45.2%Offense success %47.7%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but GB won. Projected margin was 4.9, the model overestimated by 18.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +100 | -120 |
| Our fair price | -180 | +180 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET +1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
48%
DIFFERENCE
+16%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
366.9 SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
324.0 SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
297.1 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
J.Goff4564 yd · 34 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Gibbs1223 yd · 13 TD
D.Montgomery716 yd · 8 TD
J.Goff45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.St. Brown117 rec · 1401 yd · 11 TD
J.Williams65 rec · 1117 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW4 2023 | DET 34, GB 20 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 4.9. The market has DET at +1.5.
Week 1 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, DET 24 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against GB +0.082.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
