2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ BAL – Week 16 2025
NE
BAL
NE
AWAY
28@24
NE +4
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 59%Projected margin: 0.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
0.9
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL C-tier pick misses. NE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but NE won. Projected margin was 0.9 -- the model overestimated by 4.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +165 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
40°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NE
D.Maye
QB
352.0SEASON PPR
S.Diggs
WR
210.3SEASON PPR
T.Henderson
RB
206.2SEASON PPR
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@NEW3 2022 | BAL 37, NE 26 | NE | L |
| BAL@NEW10 2020 | BAL 17, NE 23 | BAL | L |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES