49ers vs Seahawks – Week 13 2021
SF
SEA
SF
AWAY
23@30
SEA BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 13
2021 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 23, Seattle Seahawks 30.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 49ers, 1 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SF 60%Our line: SF -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -3.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.120Net EPA / play+0.003
+0.087 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.031 (14)
-0.034 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.028 (22)
45.7% (12)Offense success %43.2% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. SEA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but SEA won. Projected margin was 3.4, the model overestimated by 10.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
339.0 SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5 SEASON PPR
198.0 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo3810 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@SEAW5 2026 | SF 32, SEA 29 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW18 2025 | SEA 13, SF 3 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW1 2025 | SF 17, SEA 13 | SEA | L |
| SEA@SFW11 2024 | SEA 20, SF 17 | SF | L |
| SF@SEAW6 2024 | SF 36, SEA 24 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs SEA
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 3.4. The market has SF at -3.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, SF 23, SEA 30. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 13, the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 1.9 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 32, SEA 29 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.120 against SEA +0.003.
