Chargers vs Browns – Week 9 2024
LAC
CLE
LAC
AWAY
27@10
LAC BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 9
2024 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 27, Cleveland Browns 10.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chargers, 2 Browns.
Model confidence: LAC 60%Our line: LAC -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.100Net EPA / play-0.201
+0.039 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.183 (32)
-0.061 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (18)
42.0% (20)Offense success %37.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 17. Off by 13.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@CLEW5 2022 | LAC 30, CLE 28 | CLE | L |
| CLE@LACW5 2021 | CLE 42, LAC 47 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs CLE
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.3. The market has LAC at -2.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 27, CLE 10. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -2.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 9, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 3.0 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 30, CLE 28 in Week 5 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.100 against CLE -0.201.
