2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ DAL – Week 12 2025
PHI
DAL
PHI
AWAY
21@24
DAL +3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 65%Projected margin: -2.8
PHI
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but DAL won. Projected margin was 2.8 -- the model overestimated by 5.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PHI
J.Hurts
QB
301.1SEASON PPR
S.Barkley
RB
232.3SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
220.3SEASON PPR
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@PHIW1 2025 | DAL 20, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| DAL@PHIW17 2024 | DAL 7, PHI 41 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW10 2024 | PHI 34, DAL 6 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW14 2023 | PHI 13, DAL 33 | DAL | W |
| DAL@PHIW9 2023 | DAL 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES