Eagles vs Cowboys – Week 12 2025
PHI
DAL
PHI
AWAY
21@24
DAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2025 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 21, Dallas Cowboys 24.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 65%Our line: PHI -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -5.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.105Net EPA / play-0.070
+0.026 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (5)
-0.079 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.167 (32)
43.1% (20)Offense success %46.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but DAL won. Projected margin was 5.2, the model overestimated by 8.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@PHIW1 2025 | DAL 20, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| DAL@PHIW17 2024 | DAL 7, PHI 41 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW10 2024 | PHI 34, DAL 6 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW14 2023 | PHI 13, DAL 33 | DAL | W |
| DAL@PHIW9 2023 | DAL 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs DAL
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 5.2. The market has PHI at -3.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, PHI 21, DAL 24. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -3.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 12, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 0.9 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, DAL 20, PHI 24 in Week 1 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.105 against DAL -0.070.
