PHI @ DAL – Week 12 2026
PHI
DAL
PHI
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
THU 4:30 PM
WEEK 12 · 2026 SEASON
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 63%Projected margin: -1.9
PHI
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-1.9
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.105Net EPA / play-0.070
+0.026Offense EPA / play+0.097
-0.079Defense EPA / play+0.167
43.1%Offense success %46.6%
41.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI backed by epa edge at 63%.
EPA EDGE
PHI generates 0.026 EPA/play on offense. DAL's defense allows 0.167. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
PHI is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
TEMPO
PHI runs no-huddle on 19% of plays -- a fast tempo that can exploit defensive fatigue.
H2H EDGE
PHI has won 3 of the last 5 meetings against DAL.
Multiple signals align in PHI's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PHI
J.Hurts
QB
301.1SEASON PPR
S.Barkley
RB
232.3SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
220.3SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
J.Hurts3224 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
S.Barkley1140 yd · 7 TD
J.Hurts421 yd · 8 TD
T.Bigsby344 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
D.Smith77 rec · 1008 yd · 4 TD
A.Brown78 rec · 1003 yd · 7 TD
D.Goedert60 rec · 591 yd · 11 TD
S.Barkley37 rec · 273 yd · 2 TD
VS
3,224PASSyds4,552
1,905RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@PHIW7 2026 | — | PHI | — |
| PHI@DALW12 2025 | PHI 21, DAL 24 | PHI | L |
| DAL@PHIW1 2025 | DAL 20, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| DAL@PHIW17 2024 | DAL 7, PHI 41 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW10 2024 | PHI 34, DAL 6 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs DAL
Who is favored in Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys?
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 1.9. The market has PHI at +1.5.
When do the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys play?
Week 12 of the 2026 season, THU 4:30 PM.
Who won the last Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys game?
Dallas Cowboys, 21-24 in Week 12 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Philadelphia Eagles or the Dallas Cowboys?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.105 against DAL -0.070.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
